Stock di Carbonio Futuro - Variazione Percentuale

Land Usev0

Responsible:Niccolò Calandri

Future Potential — Percentage Change

Overview

The Future Potential — Percentage Change layer measures the relative restoration opportunity by calculating the percentage difference between current total carbon stock and the future potential (fully restored state). It is defined as:

Change (%) = ((Future Potential - Current Total) / Current Total) x 100

This metric normalizes the absolute carbon gap to the current stock level, making it possible to compare restoration opportunities across ecosystems with very different baseline carbon densities. A value of 100% means the area could double its current carbon stock through restoration; a value of 0% means the area is already at its natural carbon capacity.

The percentage change is particularly informative for:

Prioritizing restoration efforts — high percentage indicates severely degraded land relative to its potential, regardless of absolute carbon values
Identifying degradation hotspots — areas where current stocks are far below natural capacity
Comparing across biomes — a 50% gap in a grassland and a 50% gap in a forest represent equivalent relative degradation despite different absolute values
Communication in ESG reporting — percentages are more intuitive than tC/ha for stakeholders

Calculation Methodology

Current total stock — All carbon pools combined (AGB + BGB + SOC + dead organic matter)
Future potential — Current total + unrealized potential total
Percentage change = ((Future - Current) / Current) x 100
Where current stock is zero or near-zero, the percentage is capped to avoid division artifacts

Output unit: % (percentage change from current to future)

Data Sources

Code	Name	Provider	Type	Coverage	Resolution	Reference Year
Walker 2022	Carbon Density + Potential	Walker et al. / S3	Raster (COG)	Global	~300 m	2016
`COPERNICUS/S2_SR_HARMONIZED`	Sentinel-2 L2A	ESA/Copernicus	Multispectral	Global	10 m	2017 — present
`GOOGLE/DYNAMICWORLD/V1`	Dynamic World	Google/WRI	Land cover	Global	10 m	2015 — present
`USGS/SRTMGL1_003`	SRTM DEM	NASA/USGS	Elevation	60N-56S	30 m	2000

Quality Range and Levels

Indicator	Unit	Range	Inverted
`carbon_stock_future_unrealized_potential_change`	%	[0, 5, 15, 40, 80, 200]	No

Inverted = No: a higher percentage indicates a larger restoration opportunity.

Level	Thresholds	Interpretation
E (Very Low)	< 5%	Ecologically intact — virtually no restoration needed
D (Low)	5-15%	Minor degradation — modest improvement possible
C (Moderate)	15-40%	Moderate degradation — meaningful restoration opportunity
B (High)	40-80%	Significant degradation — high restoration priority
A (Very High)	> 80%	Severe degradation — transformative restoration potential

Technical Notes

Percentage change is undefined where current stock is zero; these pixels are assigned a cap value
Very low current stock with high potential can produce extremely large percentages
A 0% change does NOT mean the area has no carbon — it means it is already at full natural capacity
This metric is complementary to absolute values; use both for complete assessment

References

Walker, W.S. et al. (2022). PNAS, 119(23), e2111312119.
Spawn, S.A. et al. (2020). Scientific Data, 7, Article 112.
Breiman, L. (2001). "Random Forests". Machine Learning, 45(1), pp. 5-32.

Data Sources & References

Sources

WRD_CARBN_22

Methodology

Il layer Potenziale Futuro - Variazione Percentuale misura l'opportunita relativa di restauro calcolando la differenza percentuale tra lo stock totale attuale e il potenziale futuro: Variazione (%) = ((Futuro - Attuale) / Attuale) x 100. Questa normalizzazione permette di confrontare opportunita di restauro tra ecosistemi con densita di carbonio baseline molto diverse. Un valore del 100% indica che l'area potrebbe raddoppiare il suo stock; 0% indica capacita naturale gia raggiunta. Dove lo stock attuale e zero o quasi-zero, la percentuale viene limitata per evitare artefatti. E particolarmente utile per reporting ESG e prioritizzazione degli investimenti in restauro. Output in percentuale (%) a ~200 m.