Potenziale Non Realizzato - Totale

Land Usev0

Responsible:Niccolò Calandri

Unrealized Potential — Total

Overview

The Unrealized Potential — Total layer quantifies the total additional carbon that could be stored across all terrestrial carbon pools (AGB + BGB + SOC + dead organic matter) if the land were restored to its native vegetation state, expressed in tC/ha.

This is the most comprehensive measure of carbon restoration opportunity, integrating above-ground biomass gains, root system recovery, soil organic carbon accumulation, and dead organic matter buildup. It represents the full carbon sequestration potential that nature-based solutions could deliver at a given location.

Walker et al. (2022) estimated that the global unrealized potential amounts to approximately 139 Gt C, of which about 60% is in above-ground biomass, 15% in below-ground biomass, and 25% in soil organic carbon. Tropical and subtropical regions hold the largest unrealized potential.

This metric is the primary input for:

National-level carbon sequestration target setting
Climate finance allocation to high-opportunity areas
Corporate net-zero pathway planning using nature-based removals
Cost-effectiveness analysis of restoration investments

Calculation Methodology

Baseline extraction — Total unrealized potential raster from Walker et al. 2022
Feature engineering — NDVI, land cover, elevation
Random Forest downscaling to ~200 m

Output unit: tC/ha (total additional carbon achievable across all pools)

Data Sources

Code	Name	Provider	Type	Coverage	Resolution	Reference Year
Walker 2022	Unrealized Potential (Total)	Walker et al. / S3	Raster (COG)	Global	~300 m	2016
`COPERNICUS/S2_SR_HARMONIZED`	Sentinel-2 L2A	ESA/Copernicus	Multispectral	Global	10 m	2017 — present
`GOOGLE/DYNAMICWORLD/V1`	Dynamic World	Google/WRI	Land cover	Global	10 m	2015 — present
`USGS/SRTMGL1_003`	SRTM DEM	NASA/USGS	Elevation	60N-56S	30 m	2000

Quality Range and Levels

Indicator	Unit	Range	Inverted
`carbon_stock_unrealized_potential_total`	tC/ha	[0, 10, 30, 80, 150, 300]	No

Level	Thresholds	Interpretation
E (Very Low)	< 10 tC/ha	Near natural carbon capacity
D (Low)	10-30 tC/ha	Minor total carbon gain possible
C (Moderate)	30-80 tC/ha	Moderate restoration opportunity
B (High)	80-150 tC/ha	Large carbon deficit — high priority
A (Very High)	> 150 tC/ha	Massively degraded land with exceptional restoration potential

Technical Notes

Total unrealized potential = AGB + BGB + SOC + dead organic matter potentials
Realizing full potential requires decades to centuries depending on ecosystem
Partial realization through improved land management is feasible on shorter timescales
This metric assumes restoration to native vegetation — not all land can or should be restored

References

Walker, W.S. et al. (2022). PNAS, 119(23), e2111312119.
Spawn, S.A. et al. (2020). Scientific Data, 7, Article 112.
Breiman, L. (2001). "Random Forests". Machine Learning, 45(1), pp. 5-32.

Data Sources & References

Sources

WRD_CARBN_22

Methodology

Il layer Potenziale Non Realizzato - Totale quantifica il carbonio aggiuntivo totale su tutti i pool (AGB + BGB + SOC + materia organica morta) raggiungibile attraverso il restauro alla vegetazione nativa, secondo Walker et al. (2022). Walker stima il potenziale globale non realizzato a circa 139 Gt C. Il raster viene raffinato tramite Random Forest con NDVI (Sentinel-2), copertura del suolo (Dynamic World) ed elevazione (SRTM). E la misura piu completa dell'opportunita di restauro del carbonio e l'input primario per la pianificazione di soluzioni climatiche nature-based. Output in tC/ha a ~200 m.