To calculate Wind Risk, we use the variable [Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS)]:
The methodology proposed for Wind Risk assesses a chronic risk, i.e., persistent stress caused by anomalous baseline 'windiness' on an annual scale. This approach is based on climatology, engineering and agricultural science principles.
The use of mean wind speed (calculated monthly or annually) is a standard method for describing a region's wind climate. Unlike extreme events (gusts), mean speed is an indicator of general atmospheric circulation and overall energy present in the system.
The heart of our methodology is linking anomalous annual mean windiness to chronic impacts. This connection is well documented in several disciplines. Structural and Materials Engineering (Wear and Fatigue)
In conclusion, our methodology for Wind Risk is a scientifically founded approach for assessing chronic risks. It uses a standard climatological variable (mean wind speed), links it to documented impacts in engineering and agronomy, and applies a robust statistical method (Return Period) to create an objective risk scale.
The methodology proposed for Wind Risk assesses a chronic risk, i.e., persistent stress caused by anomalous baseline 'windiness' on an annual scale. This approach is based on climatology, engineering and agricultural science principles.The use of mean wind speed (calculated monthly or annually) is a standard method for describing a region's wind climate. Unlike extreme events (gusts), mean speed is an indicator of general atmospheric circulation and overall energy present in the system.• Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science BasisChapter 11 ('Weather and Climate Extreme Events...') and Chapter 12 ('Climate change information for regional impact...') analyze observed and projected trends not only for extreme winds, but also for mean surface wind speeds. Although the climate change signal on mean wind speed is complex and regionally variable (a phenomenon known as 'global stilling and brightening'), the variable itself is recognized by the IPCC as a fundamental climate parameter. Analysis of its interannual variability is therefore standard climatological investigation.The heart of our methodology is linking anomalous annual mean windiness to chronic impacts. This connection is well documented in several disciplines.Structural and Materials Engineering (Wear and Fatigue)- Fatigue of Structures and MaterialsStructural engineering studies the phenomenon of 'material fatigue', where repeated cyclic loads (like constant wind) cause cumulative damage and can lead to failure even at stress levels below those of a single extreme event. A year with persistently higher mean windiness (a high RP in your scheme) translates into a greater number of load cycles or cycles of greater amplitude, accelerating aging and wear of bridges, buildings, power lines and wind turbines.Agronomy and Soil Sciences (Wind Erosion)- Soil Erosion by WindWind erosion is a soil degradation process that strongly depends on wind speed. Although gusts lift particles, it is the persistence of generally stronger winds that sustains long-distance dust transport and causes significant erosion on an annual basis. A year with high mean windiness (high RP) exacerbates loss of fertile soil, especially in areas with poor vegetation cover.In conclusion, our methodology for Wind Risk is a scientifically founded approach for assessing chronic risks. It uses a standard climatological variable (mean wind speed), links it to documented impacts in engineering and agronomy, and applies a robust statistical method (Return Period) to create an objective risk scale.