How we prepare an EIA: a real report, page by page30 pages of an environmental impact study built on the platform, with a voice that walks you through them.Browse the reportThe days with a maximum temperature above 35 °C everywhere on Earth, from 1961 to 2100: the mean of 10 climate models, under two emission scenarios, from NASA data.
In 1995-2014 the land had on average 43.5 days a year with a maximum above 35 °C. In 2081-2100 they become 77.7 with intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5) and 118.1 with high emissions (SSP5-8.5): almost three times as many. The 10 models do not give the same number: with intermediate emissions the increase ranges from 20 to 57 days, with high emissions from 46 to 108.
Open on the map →Averaged over Italy, days above 35 °C were 0.9 a year in 1995-2014; in 2081-2100 they are 12.5 with intermediate emissions and 40.9 with high emissions. Lowland cities rise most: Rome from 4 to 40 days, or 82; Bologna from 3 to 30, or 69; Milan from 2 to 20, or 58.
Open on the map →Spain goes from 10.7 days a year to 38.3 with intermediate emissions and 69.5 with high emissions, Greece from 8.2 to 40.0 or 77.8, France from 2.6 to 14.8 or 47.8. Athens goes from 17 to 62 days, or 100; Seville from 44 to 88, or 128.
Open on the map →Niger, Chad, Sudan and Mali already had 220-233 days above 35 °C a year in 1995-2014. In 2081-2100, even with intermediate emissions, Senegal, Mali, Sudan, Chad and Niger reach 275-280: three days in four.
Open on the map →Where the maximum today usually stays just below 35 °C, warming pushes it over the threshold on many more days. Brazil goes from 49 to 149 days a year with intermediate emissions, Venezuela from 45 to 148, Guyana from 19 to 115. With high emissions Singapore goes from 3 to 234 days. That is how a threshold index works: the map of extra days shows where the threshold is crossed.
Open on the map →In 2021-2040 the two scenarios almost coincide: 53.5 days a year on land with intermediate emissions, 54.5 with high emissions. In 2041-2060 they are 62.4 against 70.1, in 2081-2100 77.7 against 118.1: the choice between the two emission pathways shows mostly in the second half of the century.
Open on the map →Each hexagon shows the days a year with a maximum temperature above 35 °C, the TX35 index of the IPCC Atlas, as the mean of the 10 models and of the years chosen on the timeline. Up to 2014 these are the models’ historical simulations, from 2015 the projections of the chosen scenario. The second layer shows the extra days in 2081-2100 compared with 1995-2014, in the same scenario.
NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6: the daily temperatures of 10 CMIP6 climate models (GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, UKESM1-0-LL, CanESM5, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, MIROC6) on a 0.25-degree grid, already corrected against observations. XNatura computed the index for every model, cell and year in October 2026.
As in the Atlas of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: for each model the years of the period are averaged, then the 10 models are averaged; the change is the difference from 1995-2014, the Atlas baseline; the future periods are 2021-2040, 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. The scenarios are those of ScenarioMIP, described as in the IPCC Summary: SSP2-4.5, CO₂ emissions around current levels until the middle of the century, and SSP5-8.5, emissions that double by 2050.
The means per hexagon, country and land (Antarctica excluded) are weighted by the area of the 0.25-degree cells (about 12,400 km² per hexagon in the world view, 1,770 km² zoomed in). A country’s value is the mean over its territory, not its population; a city’s is the hexagon of about 1,770 km² that contains it. A 25 km grid does not see the urban heat island: city centres usually have more days above 35 °C.
Frequently asked questions
Averaged over Italy, days above 35 °C were 0.9 a year in 1995-2014. In 2081-2100 they become 12.5 with intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5) and 40.9 with high emissions (SSP5-8.5). Rome goes from 4 to 40 days a year, or 82.
On land, from 43.5 days a year above 35 °C in 1995-2014 to 77.7 in 2081-2100 with intermediate emissions and 118.1 with high emissions, as the mean of 10 climate models.
Two emission scenarios used by the IPCC. In SSP2-4.5 CO₂ emissions stay around current levels until the middle of the century, in SSP5-8.5 they double by 2050. Until 2040 they give almost the same hot days, then they part.
No: they are projections, the mean of 10 climate models under an emission scenario. The past years are simulated by the models too, corrected against observations, not measured by stations: they serve to compare periods and places, not to tell the weather of a given year.
From the NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate projections, 10 models on a 0.25-degree grid, on which XNatura computed the days above 35 °C with the method of the IPCC Atlas.
This map shows days above 35 °C across the whole world. XN Clima computes the climate risks of a single site, today and in future scenarios, with published methods and data that can be checked.
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